What model we need to predict economic transformations? can we actually predic them? One temptation is to say that predictability is itself a scientistic strategy of domination, the product or the consequence of hubris. Or that we might gain some predictions by knowing that there are no regularities while trying to apply quantistic mechanics to social reality But to me this seems too post-modern and perhaps even a little bit new- agish.
Gui Debord in his "Societe du spectacle" made some amazing predictions. As early as 1984, way before the collapse of the Soviet empire he predicted with incredible precision what would have been completely realized after september the Twin Towers. The birth of an "integrated spectacle" the result of the fusion of consumer's capitalism (diffused spectacle) and authoritarian communism (concentrated spectacle). Constant technological transformation, secrecy, institutionalized lying, eternal present, spectacular display of violence are among the characteristics of the current social arrangement. Now we may be assisting to the fall of the "integrated spectacle', which is worth as much as thwenty times the real economy!Would this fall have been predictable?
OCSE has released its data showing that within he 30 most developed economies in the world the inequality between the rich and the poor has increased avaragely 12% in the last 15 years. In the US the top 1% controls more resources that the bottom 33% up almost 8% since 2005: Plunder!
Now I believe highly predictable that with so many poor demand would not sustain supply. It might be a phenomenon happening only in 1\20th of the value of the "integrated spectacle". But it is the real one!